Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Greater Toronto Home Resales at 1,500 in Mid December

Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 1,487 resale transactions during the first half of December, from 2,868 sales recorded in the same period a year ago, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.


The average price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area is currently $360,652. This compares to an average of $404,707 recorded during the first half of December 2007 and to an average of $343,048 recorded during the same period in 2006.


“Keeping today’s market statistics in perspective, MLS® statistics confirm that over the last 10 years the price of homes has increased in value. What this means for the consumer is that real estate continues to hold its value and is a solid choice for long-term investments,” said Ms. O’Neill.


In the 416 area, 619 transactions were recorded during the first half of this month, from 1,402 sales that took place during the same timeframe a year ago.


The average price in the 416 area is currently $382,759, from an average of $450,731 a year ago, and $367,650 recorded in the first half of December 2006.


In the 905 region 868 homes changed hands in the first two weeks of this month, from 1,466 transactions that took place in the first half of December 2007.


The 905 region’s current average price is $344,887 from an average of $360,691 recorded during the same timeframe a year ago and $325,477 recorded at mid-December 2006.


“The recent C.D. Howe land transfer tax study confirms REALTORS’® concerns that the second LTT imposed on homebuyers in the City of Toronto has indeed contributed to the economic conditions in the GTA,” added Ms. O’Neill.


There are currently 24,708 listings on the TorontoMLS system, from 17,027 a year ago. The average number of days a home now remains on the market is 43, as compared to 33 days a year ago. Sellers are achieving 96 per cent of their listing price, as compared to 98 per cent a year ago.


“Location, price and your own personal financial and family situation all play an important role when considering a purchase,” said Ms. O’Neill. “REALTORS® can provide you with information about neighbourhoods, school districts and realistic pricing because of their vast knowledge of the local community.”

This mid month release does not provide a year in review analysis. A summary of activity for all of 2008 including the month of December will be provided in the January 2009 Market Watch Report.

Toronto REALTORS® are passionate about their work. They adhere to a strict code of ethics and share a state-of-the-art Multiple Listing Service. Serving over 28,000 Members in the Greater Toronto Area, the Toronto Real Estate Board is Canada’s largest real estate board. Greater Toronto Area open house listings are now available on www.TorontoRealEstateBoard.com.


Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Toronto's condo boom is heading for a bust

A prominent Toronto housing economist is warning of an impending chill in the city's overheated condominium market.

The record number of units set for completion in 2009 and beyond will drive down housing prices and cause vacancy rates to go up as some condos sit empty.

By the end of September, there were 33,919 condos under construction in the Toronto metropolitan area – more than three times the city's annual average – said economist Will Dunning in a report on the rental and condo markets.

"This very large pending inventory is setting the stage for a substantial correction," Dunning said in an interview yesterday.

The warning comes on the heels of figures yesterday showing sales of existing homes in Canada continued to slide in the year's fourth quarter. Declines were steep amid the lowest level of monthly activity in almost eight years as investors worry about the faltering Canadian economy.

"In the short term, condos are the most vulnerable aspect of the market," said CIBC World Markets senior economist Benjamin Tal. "I think there is a lot of oversupply, especially in cities such as Toronto and Vancouver."

Already, some prominent developers have warned some condo projects being marketed may not make it to completion. In a tight credit market, as falling sales hit the new home market, speculators and investors take cover.

Toronto condominium starts are normally in the 10,000 to 12,000 range annually, but a bottleneck in construction from record sales in prior years has a significant number of units still to be completed, Dunning said.

Many of those units were bought by finicky investors who are quick to exit the market if they don't get the returns they expected. Analysts say 30 per cent to 50 per cent of sales in certain buildings were to such investors, with some already set to exit the market.

As a result, the number of condos listed for sale in central Toronto is already up a stunning 75 per cent in November from those on sale a year earlier, according to Dunning.

"It appears that this process – excess supply in the condo sector and owners acting to sell the units – may be underway already."

The large supply of condos will affect the apartment rental market, Dunning said, as units now under construction become available for occupancy; in effect, "With the weaker economy, the supply will exceed the need."

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported last week the vacancy rate in the Toronto area fell sharply to 2 per cent from 3.2 per cent a year earlier, but Dunning said the supply of new condos in the coming year will keep rates from dropping further, and will likely cause vacancy rates to rise.

So far there haven't been any catastrophic failures in the Toronto area, although one key project, MintoUrban Communities Inc.'s 300-unit Minto King West site, is on hold because of slow sales.

The developer is expected to break the project into two smaller buildings.

First-time buyer Janet Chang, 26, said she decided to hold off on buying a condo in downtown Toronto this year because of the uncertain economy.

"It's tough having to live with your parents for another year, but the last thing you want to is to lose your equity in a condo," said Chang, an accountant.

Before the advent of the economic meltdown in the United States at the beginning of the fourth quarter, new condo prices in the Toronto area were holding up well.

Prices for new condos in the third quarter were up by 2.5 per cent over the prior quarter, or about $406 per square foot, according to market research firm Urbanation. Since then, many developers have slashed prices off their suites and added incentives such as free televisions and even a new car over the past few months.

In 2006 the average condo price in Toronto was $239,816.

Meanwhile, there was more dismal news for the national real estate market as seasonally adjusted sales for November numbered 27,743 units, according to figures released by the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Sales were down 12.3 per cent on a seasonally adjusted month over month basis, and a far steeper 42 per cent unadjusted compared with November 2007.

The national average price of a home was down 9.8 per cent to $280,880, or more than $30,000 less than a year ago.

"The report underscores that the Canadian housing correction continued in earnest," said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist for TD Securities.

British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario were the three provinces reflecting the greatest decreases, said the realtor association.

"National sales activity and price trends will continue reflecting increased cautiousness on the part of lenders and buyers as the economy works its way through and out of the recession," said the real estate association's chief economist Gregory Klump.

In cities such as Toronto, sales of existing homes plunged by 50 per cent in November, the biggest decline since April 1989 when sales dropped to 54 per cent.


Source: Tony Wong, Toronto Star

Thursday, December 11, 2008

Toronto Land Transfer Tax Costs City’s Economy $170 million

Supported by a study on the impact of the Toronto Land Transfer Tax,
recently authored by the C.D. Howe Institute and two University of Toronto Economics Professors,Greater Toronto REALTORS® are renewing calls for this tax to be rolled back. See complete study

“The housing sector is one of the most significant parts of Toronto’s economy,” said Maureen O’Neill, President of the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB). “Unfortunately, the study prepared jointly by the C.D. Howe Institute and Economics Professors from the University of Toronto shows that the Toronto Land Transfer Tax has had a negative economic impact, which TREB estimates to be $170million in 2008.”

The study found that the Toronto Land Transfer Tax, which costs average Toronto homebuyers approximately $4,000 in addition to a similar amount for the provincial Land Transfer Tax, has reduced sales of re-sale single-family homes (condominiums not included in study) by 16 per cent, which means approximately 3,500 lost re-sale transactions in the first year of the tax. If condominiums are included, REALTORS® estimate that the impact could be in excess of 5,000 lost re-sale transactions in the first year of the tax.

A separate recent study, conducted by Altus Clayton for the Canadian Real Estate Association,determined that every re-sale housing transaction in Ontario generates approximately $33,425 in economic spin-off activity on things like renovations, furniture, and appliances. This means that losing 5,000 re-sale housing transactions because of the Toronto Land Transfer Tax costs the City’s economy approximately $170 million in consumer spending.

“When people buy a home, they usually spend thousands of dollars on related things like renovations,furniture, and appliances. Thousands of Toronto jobs depend on this spending,” said O’Neill. “Any City policy that impacts housing sales has a direct impact on the City’s economy and jobs.”

With the City currently preparing a recommended operating budget for 2009, TREB is calling on City Council to roll back the Toronto Land Transfer Tax.

“REALTORS® have been clear that we believe that the Toronto Land Transfer Tax is unfair and now a study by respected economists is validating that view. Not only is this tax unfair to home buyers and sellers, but also to the thousands of people whose jobs depend on the housing sector,” said O’Neill. “City Council can, and should, show leadership by rolling back the Toronto Land Transfer Tax.”

REALTORS® are looking forward to opportunities to provide input to the City’s 2009 Operating Budget.

Greater Toronto REALTORS® are passionate about their work. They adhere to a strict Code of Ethics and share a state-of-the-art Multiple Listing Service. Serving over 28,000 Members in the Greater Toronto Area, the Toronto Real Estate Board is Canada’s largest real estate board. Greater Toronto Area open house listings are now available on www.TorontoRealEstateBoard.com.


Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Mayor's land-transfer tax helped sink Toronto real estate market, study says

Amid a sinking Toronto real-estate market, Mayor David Miller's controversial new land-transfer tax is to blame for a significant chunk of falling sales and house prices, a study released by the C.D. Howe Institute today concludes.

According to the study, Mr. Miller's tax – a levy of up to 2 per cent on top of the province's existing levy – is responsible for a 16 per cent drop in sales and a 1.5 per cent drop in house prices in the city compared to its suburbs.

City finance officials had pledged that the new tax would have little effect on the city's real estate market before it was implemented in February. But the C.D. Howe study, called Sand in the Gears, concludes that the levy actually was to blame for two-thirds of the drop in the number of houses sold in Toronto from February, when the tax was implemented, until August, when the real estate market's slide began to accelerate.

“The evidence really suggests a very large impact,” C.D. Howe Institute policy analyst Benjamin Dachis said in an interview. “I'll let the evidence speak for itself.”

The study says the new tax, implemented after months of political battles at city hall, can be blamed for an average $6,400 reduction to the price of a Toronto home, and has forced some homeowners to stay put instead of move.

In order to isolate the effect of the new tax from the rest of the winds hitting the real estate market, the study looked at the three kilometres of real estate on either side of Toronto's border with Peel, York and Durham Regions, where no new tax exists, from February to August. It found a deeper slide inside Toronto, where the new tax applies, than outside.

The new land-transfer tax, and a new tax for automobile registrations, caused a months-long political battle at city hall after council narrowly voted in July 2007 to delay the new taxes and Mr. Miller charged that the move put the city in a financial crisis. The new taxes were later approved in October.

Von Palmer, a spokesman for the Toronto Real Estate Board, said the study shows his group's warnings against the tax were right, and urged the city to repeal the tax.

"This validates what we've been telling people," Mr. Palmer said in an interview. "... The reality is that it has hurt the market."

City Councillor Shelley Carroll, the mayor's budget chief, said the city had anticipated some effect on the market but that it should stabilize after at least a year. She added that the market was artificially inflated in the run-up to the implementation of the tax as some rushed to buy a home before it took effect. (The study's authors say they took this factor into account in their analysis.)

"The ebb and flow of the market that's caused by the land-transfer tax was not unanticipated," Ms. Carroll said.

Ms. Carroll seized on the report's suggestion in the report that an 8 per cent increase to the regular property tax would have been preferable to the land-transfer tax. She said such a move would have seen seniors on fixed incomes forced out of their homes, while the city's land-transfer tax was meant to keep property tax hikes lower.

Taxing the sale of a home means "you look for an up-front one-time investment, only from those who can afford it, when they can afford it," Ms. Carroll said.


Source: by Jeff Gray, Globe and Mail

Thursday, December 04, 2008

Over 3,600 Greater Toronto Area Resale Housing Sales in November

Greater Toronto REALTORS® recorded 3,640 transactions last month, from 7,313 sales in November 2007, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.

Year-to-date sales figures for the Greater Toronto Area show 72,086 transactions in 2008, from 88,695 sales recorded in the same January to November period a year ago. By contrast, the 2008 year-to-date average price in the GTA is $379,489, from $375,445 in 2007.

“Its important for the public to understand that while sales activity has moderated in 2008, due to current economic conditions, the average price of homes has increased from 2006 still making real estate a solid long term investment,” said O’Neill.

In the 416 area, 1,523 transactions took place last month, from 3,426 sales recorded in November 2007. From a year-to-date perspective, there have been 28,806 sales in the 416 area this year, from 36,804 transactions a year ago.

In the 905 Region 2,117 homes changed hands last month, from November 2007’s 3,887 sales. The 905 Region’s year-to-date figures show 43,280 transactions this year, from 51,891 sales recorded during the same period in 2007.

“Homeownership in the Greater Toronto Area continues to be an affordable, stable and secure investment,” said Ms. O’Neill. “Home buyers and sellers should be confident about their bricks and mortar investment which provides shelter and a place to raise a family.”

“Home prices are affordable, interest rates are at historical low levels and the supply of homes for sale is good providing additional reasons for buyers thinking of entering the market,” added O’Neill.

The average price of a home in the GTA last month was $368,582, from $393,747 noted in November 2007. In November 2006 the average price was recorded at $355,727.

In the 416 area, last month’s average price was $390,225, from $433,859 noted in November 2007. The average price recorded in November 2006 was $381,188. From a year-to-date perspective the 2008 average price in the 416 area is $411,155, from last year’s $411,640.

In the 905 Region, the average price recorded last month was $353,012, from $358,391 recorded in November of 2007. In November 2006 the average price was $335,522. The year-to-date average price in the 905 Region this year is $359,245, from $349,774 in 2007.

The average number of days a home currently remains on the market in the GTA is 41, from an average of 32 days last November. There are currently 27,037 homes listed on the TorontoMLS system compared to 18,309 available properties in November 2007.

“While homeownership offers immediate benefits and long term value by way of equity, it also provides tax benefits over time,” said Ms. O’Neill. “If you bought a house five years ago, it would be worth more than 20 per cent more today.”

“As REALTORS®, we help build communities and will continue to do so even during challenging economic times,” added Ms. O’Neill. “It’s important to consult with a REALTOR® to get accurate local market information.”


Greater Toronto REALTORS® are passionate about their work. They adhere to a strict Code of Ethics and share a state-of-the-art Multiple Listing Service. Serving over 28,000 Members in the Greater Toronto Area, the Toronto Real Estate Board is Canada’s largest real estate board. Greater Toronto Area open house listings are now available on www.TorontoRealEstateBoard.com.


Source: Toronto Real Estate Board

Tuesday, December 02, 2008

Greater Toronto Resale Housing at 2,000 Sales in Mid-November

Greater Toronto REALTORS® recorded 1,991 resale transactions during the first half of November 2008 from 3,544 sales recorded during the same period a year ago, Toronto Real Estate Board President Maureen O’Neill announced today.


The Greater Toronto Area year-to-date figures show 70,474 sales in 2008 from 84,994 recorded during the same period in 2007. The year-to-date average price was recorded at $380,470 in 2008 from $374,678 in 2007.


In the 416 area, 830 homes changed hands in the first two weeks of November from 1,643 transactions recorded during the same time frame a year ago. The year-to-date figures show 28,126 compared to 35,045 recorded in 2007.
In the 905 Region there were 1,161 sales during the first half of the month from the 1,901 transactions recorded at mid-November 2007. The year-to-date figures show 42,348 compared to 49,949 recorded in 2007.


It’s particularly important to interpret the 416 area statistics in context given the market surge we saw a year ago when buyers moved to avoid the new Toronto Land Transfer Tax,” said Ms. O’Neill. “At mid- month a year ago, transactions in the 416 area had increased 24 per cent over the same period in 2006.”


In the first two weeks of November 2008, the average price of a home in the GTA was $375,712 compared to $393,084 recorded a year ago.

In the 416 area, homes are currently selling for an average of $400,305 from the $432,972 average recorded during the same time period in 2007. An average price of $383,029 was recorded in the first two weeks of November 2006.


In the 905 Region the average price is currently $358,130 from $358,610 recorded a year ago. During the


first half of November 2006 the average price was recorded at $336,576.


“As an investment, a home not only offers shelter and an environment in which life’s most important moments are shared, but also offers financial appreciation in the long term, said Ms. O’Neill.”


Currently there are 27,562 homes listed for sale on the TorontoMLS system compared to a year ago when 20,173 properties were available. As such, the average time homes are remaining on the market is 41 days from 31 days in 2007. Sellers are currently achieving 97 per cent of their list price.


Greater Toronto REALTORS® are passionate about their work. They adhere to a strict Code of Ethics and share a state-of-the-art Multiple Listing Service. Serving over 28,000 Members in the Greater Toronto Area, the Toronto Real Estate Board is Canada’s largest real estate board. Greater Toronto Area open house listings are now available on www.TorontoRealEstateBoard.com.


Source: Toronto Real Estate Board