Vancouver’s hot housing market is headed for a cool down in 2012. So is Toronto’s.
But prepare for oil prices — and Alberta’s distinction as the strongest employment market in Canada in 2011 — to propel Calgary and Edmonton to the top two spots next year, according to a bold prediction by BMO Economics.
“Assuming oil prices hold around $90 or better, look for those two cities to lead the way for the hottest housing markets in 2012,” says BMO Deputy Chief Economist Doug Porter.
But GDP growth of just 2 per cent next year, slowing job growth and record-high household debt makes it highly unlikely that we’ll see a repeat of this year’s “surprisingly perky performance” of Canada’s housing market overall, warns Porter in a report.
Leading the way was Vancouver where house sales were up 16 per cent in November 2011 over a year earlier as the seasonally adjusted price of a house hit $756,512.
“That won’t be repeated next year — there are already clear signs that sales are dipping, and price increases are starting to ebb,” says the report.
“Toronto has seized the mantle of hottest major market in recent months, and appears to be at some risk of overheating.”
In second-place Toronto, home sales were up 9.7 per cent in November over a year earlier as the average house price surpassed $480,000 for the first time.
Calgary and Edmonton clearly have some catching up to do, given that their housing markets have remained flat over the last year, even as Alberta topped the rest of the country in job growth.
House prices there are a relative bargain with the average house selling for just $402,185 in Calgary and $326,741 in Edmonton in November, according to figures from the Canadian Real Estate Board.
Source: by Susan Pigg (Toronto Star)
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Toronto Mayor Rob Ford to seek 2.5-per-cent property-tax hike
Toronto residents will be asked to pay 2.5-per-cent more in property taxes at a time of cuts to city spending as Mayor Rob Ford continues his austerity crusade with the proposed budget for next year.
The mayor is attempting to reverse a steady increase in spending – an especially tall task in municipal government, where Mr. Ford requires buy-in from a majority of council. Toronto residents get their first glance at how Mr. Ford plans to do that when the wraps come off the 2012 budget starting Monday.
Proposed cuts would shave close to $50-million off the city’s total spending, sources familiar with the budget say. At the same time, the city is counting on taxes to cover a greater share of its planned $9.35-billion budget, which also includes revenue from transfer payments, user fees and other sources. A growing assessment base and the proposed tax hike are expected to add close to $100-million to the city’s coffers, sources say.
Mr. Ford has been clear about his desire to shrink the size of Toronto’s government and reduce costs across the board. For too long, he argues, the city has lived beyond its means, relying on one-time revenue and bailouts from the province to balance its books.
But curbing spending is proving to be a greater task than the mayor envisioned when he promised voters he could cut costs and preserve services by finding the “gravy” at city hall – proof his critics say that there is no gravy after all.
The proposed cut to next year’s budget represents about half a per cent of total expenditures. Balancing the city’s books will depend on one-time windfalls, such as the sale of real estate and the city’s interest in Enwave, Toronto’s downtown district heating and cooling system, The Globe and Mail has learned.
Gaining council’s approval for this budget is a key test for the mayor. The prospect of cuts to libraries and transit service has prompted strong push-back from the public. A review of core services this summer came up with $27.7-million in cost savings to which councillors could agree and the mayor’s closest allies outvoted him earlier this month on a money-saving measure to stop the collection of extra recycling placed beside blue bins.
Labour costs also will be a factor. Staff cuts are a certainty, with pink slips already being delivered in some departments. In addition, management are being trained to drive Zambonis and deliver front-line services in anticipation of a possible lengthy labour disruption next year.
In selling his budget, Mr. Ford is expected to emphasize the need to hold the line on spending, stressing that a dollar directed to save one service must be balanced by a dollar cut elsewhere.
“This is where the city needs to go,” said a source close to the administration. “This is all about resetting the foundation.”
A city-wide directive asked for 10-per-cent savings in all areas. But some, such as police services, failed to reach that number, meaning others will face even more reductions. “Not all departments are essential,” said the source, characterizing the 10-per-cent request as a “management tool,” used to push staff to find savings.
Using the cost-cutting efforts of other governments as a guide, economist Eric Lascelles predicts lowering Toronto’s spending will be tough. Inflation and a growing population naturally drive up expenditures by about 3-per-cent annually, he said, even without new programs, so holding the line or reducing the money going out generally means fewer services.
“It’s difficult to avoid,” said Mr. Lascelles, chief economist for RBC Global Asset Management, pointing to the federal budgets of Paul Martin as an example. “You have to be out there actively cutting and that’s the challenge. It’s very unpopular and politicians don’t like to be unpopular. That’s what makes it so difficult,” he said.
Critics of Mr. Ford, among them former budget chair Shelley Carroll, argue there is no need to cut spending in a city with a growing population and tax base like Toronto. “We are not that broke,” Councillor Carroll said. “You should be efficient, but rein in spending? There is nothing to rein in here.”
Source: Elizabeth Church (Globe and Mail)
The mayor is attempting to reverse a steady increase in spending – an especially tall task in municipal government, where Mr. Ford requires buy-in from a majority of council. Toronto residents get their first glance at how Mr. Ford plans to do that when the wraps come off the 2012 budget starting Monday.
Proposed cuts would shave close to $50-million off the city’s total spending, sources familiar with the budget say. At the same time, the city is counting on taxes to cover a greater share of its planned $9.35-billion budget, which also includes revenue from transfer payments, user fees and other sources. A growing assessment base and the proposed tax hike are expected to add close to $100-million to the city’s coffers, sources say.
Mr. Ford has been clear about his desire to shrink the size of Toronto’s government and reduce costs across the board. For too long, he argues, the city has lived beyond its means, relying on one-time revenue and bailouts from the province to balance its books.
But curbing spending is proving to be a greater task than the mayor envisioned when he promised voters he could cut costs and preserve services by finding the “gravy” at city hall – proof his critics say that there is no gravy after all.
The proposed cut to next year’s budget represents about half a per cent of total expenditures. Balancing the city’s books will depend on one-time windfalls, such as the sale of real estate and the city’s interest in Enwave, Toronto’s downtown district heating and cooling system, The Globe and Mail has learned.
Gaining council’s approval for this budget is a key test for the mayor. The prospect of cuts to libraries and transit service has prompted strong push-back from the public. A review of core services this summer came up with $27.7-million in cost savings to which councillors could agree and the mayor’s closest allies outvoted him earlier this month on a money-saving measure to stop the collection of extra recycling placed beside blue bins.
Labour costs also will be a factor. Staff cuts are a certainty, with pink slips already being delivered in some departments. In addition, management are being trained to drive Zambonis and deliver front-line services in anticipation of a possible lengthy labour disruption next year.
In selling his budget, Mr. Ford is expected to emphasize the need to hold the line on spending, stressing that a dollar directed to save one service must be balanced by a dollar cut elsewhere.
“This is where the city needs to go,” said a source close to the administration. “This is all about resetting the foundation.”
A city-wide directive asked for 10-per-cent savings in all areas. But some, such as police services, failed to reach that number, meaning others will face even more reductions. “Not all departments are essential,” said the source, characterizing the 10-per-cent request as a “management tool,” used to push staff to find savings.
Using the cost-cutting efforts of other governments as a guide, economist Eric Lascelles predicts lowering Toronto’s spending will be tough. Inflation and a growing population naturally drive up expenditures by about 3-per-cent annually, he said, even without new programs, so holding the line or reducing the money going out generally means fewer services.
“It’s difficult to avoid,” said Mr. Lascelles, chief economist for RBC Global Asset Management, pointing to the federal budgets of Paul Martin as an example. “You have to be out there actively cutting and that’s the challenge. It’s very unpopular and politicians don’t like to be unpopular. That’s what makes it so difficult,” he said.
Critics of Mr. Ford, among them former budget chair Shelley Carroll, argue there is no need to cut spending in a city with a growing population and tax base like Toronto. “We are not that broke,” Councillor Carroll said. “You should be efficient, but rein in spending? There is nothing to rein in here.”
Source: Elizabeth Church (Globe and Mail)
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Real estate boards push back
The Canadian Real Estate Association might have struck a deal that gives property owners the chance to pay brokers only for the services they want when selling their homes.
But in an odd twist, a year after settling with the Federal Competition Bureau, the real estate association is now facing an internal revolt by several member boards that say they are fed up of paying for services they don’t need.
Indeed, the Greater Montreal Real Estate board – the second largest board in Canada with 10,000 members – says it would consider leaving CREA at the end of 2012 if the association doesn’t cut expenses, and embrace the very same “fee-for-service” model now available to Canadian homeowners.
“What we want here in Quebec – and we assume it’s the same thing at other real estate boards in Canada – is for the CREA to provide us with à la carte services,” Montreal board president Patrick Juanéda told The Gazette in an interview Thursday. “We have too much duplication of services. Why recreate what already exists?
“This is a reality that’s existed for 10 years, and it’s just grown and grown. It’s becoming too expensive; our members are fed up.”
According to the Montreal board, CREA’s national membership dues are to rise 41 per cent between 2010 and 2013, from $220 to $310. CREA dues are used to defray the costs of services like government relations, publicity, meetings and technological tools like the realtor.ca website.
The CREA dues are part of the more than $2,000 in fees paid this year by a Montreal-area broker to his or her industry associations. These fees come at a time when members are seeing their commissions watered down by competition from For Sale By Owner sites and discount agencies where brokers are willing to be paid less for offering limited real estate services.
But a spokesperson for CREA said any fee increases were approved by 80 per cent of association delegates at a 2010 meeting. The fee increase, Pierre Leduc said in an email, was needed so CREA “could keep up to date with the tech tools consumers and Realtors use,” such as new apps developed by the association.
Yet Juanéda says CREA services like its ad campaigns aren’t useful in Quebec, where the entire real estate profession – down to the use of terminology like “broker” as opposed to “agent” – is regulated by provincial law. Indeed, last month CREA actually reimbursed the Montreal board for the dues its members pay for advertising, Juanéda said.
What’s more, CREA’s site, realtor.ca, duplicates the
centris.ca website used by most brokers in Quebec.
The Montreal board says CREA fees have grown by 121 per cent over the last 10 years.
“What company today would spend that much more without trying to trim its own fat?” Juanéda asked.
Although Juanéda says his concerns over duplication of services are shared by real estate professionals across the country, Quebec real estate boards appear to be the most vociferous. One small real estate board – in Granby – has already opted to leave.
A spokesperson for the Toronto Real Estate Board, Canada’s largest board, could not be reached for comment. Neither could ones for the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver or the Calgary Real Estate Board.
But in a recent interview, outgoing Calgary board president Ron Esch told Real Estate Magazine that duplication of services is a concern for his members.
“One of the concerns I have for real estate boards (and it includes the provincial associations and CREA) is that we don’t duplicate services at the different levels,” Esch told the magazine. “We need to make sure that we don’t keep piling it on and then the member has to pay for the same service at two or three different levels.”
CREA spokesperson Leduc said the complaints against CREA largely stem from Quebec boards where brokers have been hit by a hefty fee hike from the real estate industry’s watchdog, the Organisme d’autoréglementation du courtage immobilier du Québec, or OACIQ.
“We understand that Quebec boards and their members are under unique pressures due to market conditions and the fact that the regulator in Quebec has nearly doubled its licensing fees,” Leduc wrote.
Leduc, however, acknowledged that the concerns aren’t limited exclusively to Quebec boards.
“As you can imagine, with over 100,000 members and 103 member boards and associations, CREA is always talking with them about various issues, how to meet evolving needs, etc.,” he wrote. “But I’m not aware of any specific ongoing concerns related to the dues increase – as I said almost 80 per cent of the delegates approved it.”
Leduc was not able to say Thursday whether the association would change its model of collecting dues from member boards, but noted that CREA would continue to talk to disgruntled boards.
“We have had, and continue to have, discussions with some Quebec boards, including Montreal, and are working toward a mutually agreeable solution that works for the benefit of all CREA members.”
Source:The Montreal Gazette
But in an odd twist, a year after settling with the Federal Competition Bureau, the real estate association is now facing an internal revolt by several member boards that say they are fed up of paying for services they don’t need.
Indeed, the Greater Montreal Real Estate board – the second largest board in Canada with 10,000 members – says it would consider leaving CREA at the end of 2012 if the association doesn’t cut expenses, and embrace the very same “fee-for-service” model now available to Canadian homeowners.
“What we want here in Quebec – and we assume it’s the same thing at other real estate boards in Canada – is for the CREA to provide us with à la carte services,” Montreal board president Patrick Juanéda told The Gazette in an interview Thursday. “We have too much duplication of services. Why recreate what already exists?
“This is a reality that’s existed for 10 years, and it’s just grown and grown. It’s becoming too expensive; our members are fed up.”
According to the Montreal board, CREA’s national membership dues are to rise 41 per cent between 2010 and 2013, from $220 to $310. CREA dues are used to defray the costs of services like government relations, publicity, meetings and technological tools like the realtor.ca website.
The CREA dues are part of the more than $2,000 in fees paid this year by a Montreal-area broker to his or her industry associations. These fees come at a time when members are seeing their commissions watered down by competition from For Sale By Owner sites and discount agencies where brokers are willing to be paid less for offering limited real estate services.
But a spokesperson for CREA said any fee increases were approved by 80 per cent of association delegates at a 2010 meeting. The fee increase, Pierre Leduc said in an email, was needed so CREA “could keep up to date with the tech tools consumers and Realtors use,” such as new apps developed by the association.
Yet Juanéda says CREA services like its ad campaigns aren’t useful in Quebec, where the entire real estate profession – down to the use of terminology like “broker” as opposed to “agent” – is regulated by provincial law. Indeed, last month CREA actually reimbursed the Montreal board for the dues its members pay for advertising, Juanéda said.
What’s more, CREA’s site, realtor.ca, duplicates the
centris.ca website used by most brokers in Quebec.
The Montreal board says CREA fees have grown by 121 per cent over the last 10 years.
“What company today would spend that much more without trying to trim its own fat?” Juanéda asked.
Although Juanéda says his concerns over duplication of services are shared by real estate professionals across the country, Quebec real estate boards appear to be the most vociferous. One small real estate board – in Granby – has already opted to leave.
A spokesperson for the Toronto Real Estate Board, Canada’s largest board, could not be reached for comment. Neither could ones for the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver or the Calgary Real Estate Board.
But in a recent interview, outgoing Calgary board president Ron Esch told Real Estate Magazine that duplication of services is a concern for his members.
“One of the concerns I have for real estate boards (and it includes the provincial associations and CREA) is that we don’t duplicate services at the different levels,” Esch told the magazine. “We need to make sure that we don’t keep piling it on and then the member has to pay for the same service at two or three different levels.”
CREA spokesperson Leduc said the complaints against CREA largely stem from Quebec boards where brokers have been hit by a hefty fee hike from the real estate industry’s watchdog, the Organisme d’autoréglementation du courtage immobilier du Québec, or OACIQ.
“We understand that Quebec boards and their members are under unique pressures due to market conditions and the fact that the regulator in Quebec has nearly doubled its licensing fees,” Leduc wrote.
Leduc, however, acknowledged that the concerns aren’t limited exclusively to Quebec boards.
“As you can imagine, with over 100,000 members and 103 member boards and associations, CREA is always talking with them about various issues, how to meet evolving needs, etc.,” he wrote. “But I’m not aware of any specific ongoing concerns related to the dues increase – as I said almost 80 per cent of the delegates approved it.”
Leduc was not able to say Thursday whether the association would change its model of collecting dues from member boards, but noted that CREA would continue to talk to disgruntled boards.
“We have had, and continue to have, discussions with some Quebec boards, including Montreal, and are working toward a mutually agreeable solution that works for the benefit of all CREA members.”
Source:The Montreal Gazette
Tuesday, October 25, 2011
GTA REALTORS® Release Mid-Month Resale Market Figures
Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 3,477 transactions through the TorontoMLS® system during the first 14 days of October 2011. This total represented a 20 per cent increase over 2,890 sales reported during the first two weeks of October 2010. Year-over-year growth in new listings for the same period was slightly stronger than that recorded for sales – up 21 per cent to 6,249.
"The first two weeks of October seem to be pointing towards more balanced market conditions as we move toward 2012. Growth in new listings outstripped growth in sales, meaning more choice for buyers," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. "A growing number of home owners are reacting to the above average price growth reported this year and have decided to list their home for sale. They are confident they will receive timely offers in line with their asking prices."
The average selling price during the first two weeks of October was $475,743 – up 7.5 per cent compared to the same period in 2010.
"The average resale home price is expected to grow at a slower pace in the months ahead because the market is becoming better supplied. There will be less competition between home buyers as we move through the fall and winter." said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "With a more balanced market in 2012, the average rate of annual price growth is expected to be in the mid single digits."
"The first two weeks of October seem to be pointing towards more balanced market conditions as we move toward 2012. Growth in new listings outstripped growth in sales, meaning more choice for buyers," said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. "A growing number of home owners are reacting to the above average price growth reported this year and have decided to list their home for sale. They are confident they will receive timely offers in line with their asking prices."
The average selling price during the first two weeks of October was $475,743 – up 7.5 per cent compared to the same period in 2010.
"The average resale home price is expected to grow at a slower pace in the months ahead because the market is becoming better supplied. There will be less competition between home buyers as we move through the fall and winter." said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "With a more balanced market in 2012, the average rate of annual price growth is expected to be in the mid single digits."
Summary of TorontoMLS® Sales and Average Price October 1 – 14 | |||||||||||
2011 | 2010 | ||||||||||
Sales | Average Price | Sales | Average Price | ||||||||
City of Toronto ("416") | 1,408 | $524,553 | 1,237 | $499,740 | |||||||
Rest of GTA ("905") | 2,069 | $442,527 | 1,653 | $400,088 | |||||||
GTA | 3,477 | $475,743 | 2,890 | $442,742 | |||||||
TorontoMLS® Sales & Average Price By Home Type | |||||||||||
Sales | Average Price | ||||||||||
416 | 905 | Total | 416 | 905 | Total | ||||||
Detached | 450 | 1,143 | 1,593 | 754,240 | 530,339 | 593,588 | |||||
Yr./Yr. % Change | 2% | 24% | 17% | 3% | 10% | 6% | |||||
Semi-Detached | 183 | 245 | 428 | 545,995 | 364,649 | 442,188 | |||||
Yr./Yr. % Change | 33% | 41% | 37% | 11% | 7% | 9% | |||||
Townhouse | 151 | 372 | 523 | 461,112 | 343,510 | 377,464 | |||||
Yr./Yr. % Change | 23% | 18% | 20% | 16% | 12% | 13% | |||||
Condo Apartment | 609 | 251 | 860 | 369,528 | 272,190 | 341,119 | |||||
Yr./Yr. % Change | 16% | 22% | 18% | 10% | 10% | 10% | |||||
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Friday, September 16, 2011
In Toronto, the fall housing market hits a speed bump
Toronto’s hot housing market may be showing the first signs of cooling as a surge of new listings arrived right after Labour Day to a lukewarm response from potential buyers.
Real estate agents say it’s too soon to tell whether buyers are losing confidence or are just slow to return from vacation as the fall market gears up.
Theodore Babiak of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. says some sellers have received multiple offers in recent weeks, but the frenzied bidding that characterized the spring market has slowed down.
“I think sellers will need to temper their expectations,” says Mr. Babiak, who detected a slight decrease in buyers’ enthusiasm in the second half of August.
Bank of Nova Scotia economist Adrienne Warren says strong price gains during the summer may be encouraging more owners to bring their properties to market.
Ms. Warren says sellers definitely had the upper hand in Toronto’s real estate market last month as listings remained tight.
Early data shows that sales jumped 24 per cent last month compared with the lethargic pace set in August of 2010. She estimates that the average price rose 10 per cent in August compared with the same month last year.
But a shift may be underway, Ms. Warren says, as the strong price gains tallied through the summer may be encouraging more owners to bring their properties to the market.
“I think sellers say ‘it’s a pretty good time to list.’ ”
Consumers, meanwhile, are feeling less buoyant according to recent surveys.
Last week’s employment report from Statistics Canada, which showed the economy shed jobs in August, may dampen confidence further, she adds.
Ms. Warren says Toronto’s real estate market has been noticeably hotter than those in other Canadian cities. Demand in Vancouver has been dampened by the lack of affordability, she adds, and that same phenomenon may discourage house hunters here.
“Affordability is certainly an issue here in Toronto,” she says.
Ms. Warren is still forecasting increasing prices on an annual basis in Toronto, but she believes those gains will slow to two or three per cent by the final months of 2011 compared with the same months in 2010.
She cautions, however, that if the jobs market deteriorates sharply, house prices may fall.
Mr. Babiak says the high end of the market has been soft in Toronto in recent months as investment bankers and other Bay Street workers worry about the outlook for financial markets and world economies.
Houses priced at less than $1-million have been snapped up quickly thus far, he says, but buyers may become more nervous.
“I would have no problem telling sellers to list sooner rather than later,” he says.
For now Mr. Babiak will continue to advise sellers with a good property to set an offer date with the hope of attracting multiple bids, he says, but sellers of houses and condos that are poorly-located or have other flaws will likely do better to take offers at any time.
“New listings will have to be priced sharply to get action,” he says.
Agent Duncan Fremlin of ReMax Hallmark Realty Ltd. says he has been called out to evaluate several potential listings but it’s too soon to tell if house hunters will retreat to the sidelines.
“The wild card in all of this is the buyers.”
He hasn’t seen signs of a cool down.
“I haven’t sensed yet that the consumer has lost confidence.”
Source: Carolyn Ireland (Globe and Mail)
Real estate agents say it’s too soon to tell whether buyers are losing confidence or are just slow to return from vacation as the fall market gears up.
Theodore Babiak of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. says some sellers have received multiple offers in recent weeks, but the frenzied bidding that characterized the spring market has slowed down.
“I think sellers will need to temper their expectations,” says Mr. Babiak, who detected a slight decrease in buyers’ enthusiasm in the second half of August.
Bank of Nova Scotia economist Adrienne Warren says strong price gains during the summer may be encouraging more owners to bring their properties to market.
Ms. Warren says sellers definitely had the upper hand in Toronto’s real estate market last month as listings remained tight.
Early data shows that sales jumped 24 per cent last month compared with the lethargic pace set in August of 2010. She estimates that the average price rose 10 per cent in August compared with the same month last year.
But a shift may be underway, Ms. Warren says, as the strong price gains tallied through the summer may be encouraging more owners to bring their properties to the market.
“I think sellers say ‘it’s a pretty good time to list.’ ”
Consumers, meanwhile, are feeling less buoyant according to recent surveys.
Last week’s employment report from Statistics Canada, which showed the economy shed jobs in August, may dampen confidence further, she adds.
Ms. Warren says Toronto’s real estate market has been noticeably hotter than those in other Canadian cities. Demand in Vancouver has been dampened by the lack of affordability, she adds, and that same phenomenon may discourage house hunters here.
“Affordability is certainly an issue here in Toronto,” she says.
Ms. Warren is still forecasting increasing prices on an annual basis in Toronto, but she believes those gains will slow to two or three per cent by the final months of 2011 compared with the same months in 2010.
She cautions, however, that if the jobs market deteriorates sharply, house prices may fall.
Mr. Babiak says the high end of the market has been soft in Toronto in recent months as investment bankers and other Bay Street workers worry about the outlook for financial markets and world economies.
Houses priced at less than $1-million have been snapped up quickly thus far, he says, but buyers may become more nervous.
“I would have no problem telling sellers to list sooner rather than later,” he says.
For now Mr. Babiak will continue to advise sellers with a good property to set an offer date with the hope of attracting multiple bids, he says, but sellers of houses and condos that are poorly-located or have other flaws will likely do better to take offers at any time.
“New listings will have to be priced sharply to get action,” he says.
Agent Duncan Fremlin of ReMax Hallmark Realty Ltd. says he has been called out to evaluate several potential listings but it’s too soon to tell if house hunters will retreat to the sidelines.
“The wild card in all of this is the buyers.”
He hasn’t seen signs of a cool down.
“I haven’t sensed yet that the consumer has lost confidence.”
Source: Carolyn Ireland (Globe and Mail)
Thursday, September 15, 2011
CREA report could show August market turmoil affected monthly home sales
Investors are bracing for word on whether August's stock market volatility put a damper on Canadian housing sales for the month.
The Canadian Real Estate Association is set to release figures for existing home sales later this morning.
Economists are expecting a 14 per cent spike in sales volumes from a year ago and say prices will rise by 7.5 per cent.
Strong housing sales in the second quarter had previously prompted CREA to revise its 2011 home sales projections upwards.
Initially, the real estate brokers group had predicted they would decline one per cent from 2010 levels.
But August was a month of wild swings on most major markets, including the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the effect on the real estate market is not yet known.
U.S. government debt negotiations and fears of an economic meltdown in cash-strapped European countries saw the TSX drop below 12,000 points and fall off more than 10 per cent from highs set in early March.
Analysts say the Canadian housing market has continued to grow despite a slowing national economy — mainly because of low mortgage rates and strong job growth, especially in western Canada.
Source: The Canadian Press
The Canadian Real Estate Association is set to release figures for existing home sales later this morning.
Economists are expecting a 14 per cent spike in sales volumes from a year ago and say prices will rise by 7.5 per cent.
Strong housing sales in the second quarter had previously prompted CREA to revise its 2011 home sales projections upwards.
Initially, the real estate brokers group had predicted they would decline one per cent from 2010 levels.
But August was a month of wild swings on most major markets, including the Toronto Stock Exchange, and the effect on the real estate market is not yet known.
U.S. government debt negotiations and fears of an economic meltdown in cash-strapped European countries saw the TSX drop below 12,000 points and fall off more than 10 per cent from highs set in early March.
Analysts say the Canadian housing market has continued to grow despite a slowing national economy — mainly because of low mortgage rates and strong job growth, especially in western Canada.
Source: The Canadian Press
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Toronto Real Estate Board plans to move ahead with password-protected sites
The Toronto Real Estate Board says it's sticking to its plan to develop password protected websites, despite the federal Competition Bureau's opposition.
In its first response to an amended lawsuit filed by the federal agency, the Toronto Real Estate Board said Friday that its proposed new password protected websites that allow consumers to search Multiple Listing Service data while protecting the privacy of its customers.
"As planned, TREB has followed through on its commitment to provide realtor members with greater flexibility to serve their clients by developing a Virtual Office Website (VOW) policy," it said.
It added that consumers will be able to use those protected websites with the oversight of a realtor.
TREB accused the competition commissioner of pressuring the real-estate board to release private data about individual consumers, including contact and financial information, on the Internet.
Last month, the Competition Bureau updated its lawsuit, saying that password protected websites are still discriminatory and anti-competitive.
The amended case says the VOWs would still prevent agents from making key historical data available online.
The filing comes after TREB announced a new policy proposal last month in response to the Competition Bureau's first legal action taken against it in May.
The bureau had alleged consumers were being denied choice because while local agents were allowed to provide detailed information to customers in person or through fax or email, they were banned from doling out such information through websites.
But the bureau is not satisfied with the new policy, saying the proposed rules will continue to require customers to contact a realtor, entrenching the physical location model and discriminating against brokers who want to use the Internet.
The bureau alleges that TREB's restrictions are in violation of the Competition Act.
Source: The Canadian Press
In its first response to an amended lawsuit filed by the federal agency, the Toronto Real Estate Board said Friday that its proposed new password protected websites that allow consumers to search Multiple Listing Service data while protecting the privacy of its customers.
"As planned, TREB has followed through on its commitment to provide realtor members with greater flexibility to serve their clients by developing a Virtual Office Website (VOW) policy," it said.
It added that consumers will be able to use those protected websites with the oversight of a realtor.
TREB accused the competition commissioner of pressuring the real-estate board to release private data about individual consumers, including contact and financial information, on the Internet.
Last month, the Competition Bureau updated its lawsuit, saying that password protected websites are still discriminatory and anti-competitive.
The amended case says the VOWs would still prevent agents from making key historical data available online.
The filing comes after TREB announced a new policy proposal last month in response to the Competition Bureau's first legal action taken against it in May.
The bureau had alleged consumers were being denied choice because while local agents were allowed to provide detailed information to customers in person or through fax or email, they were banned from doling out such information through websites.
But the bureau is not satisfied with the new policy, saying the proposed rules will continue to require customers to contact a realtor, entrenching the physical location model and discriminating against brokers who want to use the Internet.
The bureau alleges that TREB's restrictions are in violation of the Competition Act.
Source: The Canadian Press
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Toronto housing prices hit mid-summer slump
Toronto real estate prices have slid back to levels last seen in March, after reaching a higher average in July than the same time the previous year.
According to figures released Thursday by the Toronto Real Estate Board, the average GTA selling price in July was $459,122 -- "up by almost 10 per cent compared to the July 2010 average of $418,675," it said.
But the average GTA price peaked in May at $485,520.
The March average price was $456,147, while the January price was $427,037.
Jason Mercer, the board's senior manager of market analysis, told CTV News that they consider the year-over-year price to be a more "apples to apples" comparison.
Housing prices almost always dip each summer, he said.
"Over the last four years … every year, you've seen the price decline from the spring into the summer. Just as sales edge lower in the summer, so does price," Mercer said.
In the board's news release, it highlighted strong sales volumes last month, saying they were up 23 per cent over July 2010.
However, total sales in the first seven months of 2011 are down by 1.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2010.
"But what we're seeing is an acceleration in sales," Mercer said.
He said if the pace keeps up, the board still expects about 90,000 sales transactions in 2011, which would make it the second-best year on record.
The board released its statistics on a day when the TSX suffered its worst one-day drop since the start of the recession in 2008.
It declined by 435 points, or about 3.4 per cent, closing at 12,380.13, over fears of a slowing U.S. and global economic recovery. That follows several sessions of losses.
Mercer said economic confidence appeared diminished in the summer of 2010 over changes to federal mortgage lending guidelines, along with fears about interest-rate hikes and the impact of the HST. The new provincial tax, which is harmonized with the federal GST, came into effect on July 1, 2010, and applies to most real estate purchases.
"This year, we've seen consumer confidence remain quite strong," he said, pointing to Ontario's job numbers through to June along with positive news on income growth.
Moving into the second half of the year, it will be interesting to see if the turbulence in the equities markets hurts that confidence, Mercer said.
In the GTA market, homes remain relatively affordable, with basic expenses (mortgage, utilities, taxes) totalling about 31 to 32 per cent of household income, he said.
"That is certainly acceptable from a mortgage lending perspective, and it remains low from a historic perspective," Mercer said.
Source: Darren Calabrese / THE CANADIAN PRESS
According to figures released Thursday by the Toronto Real Estate Board, the average GTA selling price in July was $459,122 -- "up by almost 10 per cent compared to the July 2010 average of $418,675," it said.
But the average GTA price peaked in May at $485,520.
The March average price was $456,147, while the January price was $427,037.
Jason Mercer, the board's senior manager of market analysis, told CTV News that they consider the year-over-year price to be a more "apples to apples" comparison.
Housing prices almost always dip each summer, he said.
"Over the last four years … every year, you've seen the price decline from the spring into the summer. Just as sales edge lower in the summer, so does price," Mercer said.
In the board's news release, it highlighted strong sales volumes last month, saying they were up 23 per cent over July 2010.
However, total sales in the first seven months of 2011 are down by 1.3 per cent compared to the same period in 2010.
"But what we're seeing is an acceleration in sales," Mercer said.
He said if the pace keeps up, the board still expects about 90,000 sales transactions in 2011, which would make it the second-best year on record.
The board released its statistics on a day when the TSX suffered its worst one-day drop since the start of the recession in 2008.
It declined by 435 points, or about 3.4 per cent, closing at 12,380.13, over fears of a slowing U.S. and global economic recovery. That follows several sessions of losses.
Mercer said economic confidence appeared diminished in the summer of 2010 over changes to federal mortgage lending guidelines, along with fears about interest-rate hikes and the impact of the HST. The new provincial tax, which is harmonized with the federal GST, came into effect on July 1, 2010, and applies to most real estate purchases.
"This year, we've seen consumer confidence remain quite strong," he said, pointing to Ontario's job numbers through to June along with positive news on income growth.
Moving into the second half of the year, it will be interesting to see if the turbulence in the equities markets hurts that confidence, Mercer said.
In the GTA market, homes remain relatively affordable, with basic expenses (mortgage, utilities, taxes) totalling about 31 to 32 per cent of household income, he said.
"That is certainly acceptable from a mortgage lending perspective, and it remains low from a historic perspective," Mercer said.
Source: Darren Calabrese / THE CANADIAN PRESS
Monday, July 25, 2011
Home prices expected to stay flat in 2012: RBC
The Canadian housing market is making a transition to a much slower pace growth compared to the surge seen in the past decade, according to a Royal Bank (TSX: RY) housing market outlook.
The report released Thursday said home resales are expected to grow by 0.9 per cent this year and remain unchanged in 2012, while home prices will increase by 4.4 per cent this year and 0.4 per cent in 2012.
“Such results would mark a significant slowing relative to the performance during the 2002-2008 period,” senior economist Robert Hogue wrote in the report.
Since 2008, the transition in the housing market has been extremely volatile reflecting the impact of events both at home and abroad, it said.
Those changes include a global recession, as well as domestic policy changes — such as a sharp drop in interest rates, three rounds of mortgage rule changes and the introduction of the HST in Ontario and British Columbia.
“Our view is that less turbulent economic and policy environments will support a smoother process going forward,” Hogue said.
“The main policy shift will be one toward progressively higher interest rates, which will cool demand but not deep-freeze it.”
At the provincial level, RBC forecasts that the Alberta market will post the strongest growth in home sales this year and next, while it expects a modest decline in Quebec.
Meanwhile, “perplexing developments” in the Vancouver area, where average home prices have surged despite slower resales, are expected to be partly reversed, making B.C. the only province to see a price decline in the bank’s 2012 forecast.
Home sales have rebounded from lows reported last summer to 465,000 units in the first quarter, although they have softened to 443,000 units in the second quarter.
“This slowing is in line with our view that the latest changes in mortgage lending rules announced in January of this year and implemented in March and April brought forward some demand that would have otherwise occurred later on,” Hogue said.
“In turn, the second-quarter slowing represented somewhat of a ‘payback,’ which will then be followed by a return to mildly stronger activity.”
Source: VINCE TALOTTA/TORONTO STAR
The report released Thursday said home resales are expected to grow by 0.9 per cent this year and remain unchanged in 2012, while home prices will increase by 4.4 per cent this year and 0.4 per cent in 2012.
“Such results would mark a significant slowing relative to the performance during the 2002-2008 period,” senior economist Robert Hogue wrote in the report.
Since 2008, the transition in the housing market has been extremely volatile reflecting the impact of events both at home and abroad, it said.
Those changes include a global recession, as well as domestic policy changes — such as a sharp drop in interest rates, three rounds of mortgage rule changes and the introduction of the HST in Ontario and British Columbia.
“Our view is that less turbulent economic and policy environments will support a smoother process going forward,” Hogue said.
“The main policy shift will be one toward progressively higher interest rates, which will cool demand but not deep-freeze it.”
At the provincial level, RBC forecasts that the Alberta market will post the strongest growth in home sales this year and next, while it expects a modest decline in Quebec.
Meanwhile, “perplexing developments” in the Vancouver area, where average home prices have surged despite slower resales, are expected to be partly reversed, making B.C. the only province to see a price decline in the bank’s 2012 forecast.
Home sales have rebounded from lows reported last summer to 465,000 units in the first quarter, although they have softened to 443,000 units in the second quarter.
“This slowing is in line with our view that the latest changes in mortgage lending rules announced in January of this year and implemented in March and April brought forward some demand that would have otherwise occurred later on,” Hogue said.
“In turn, the second-quarter slowing represented somewhat of a ‘payback,’ which will then be followed by a return to mildly stronger activity.”
Source: VINCE TALOTTA/TORONTO STAR
Friday, July 08, 2011
Competition Bureau updates charges against Toronto Real Estate Board
Increase text size The Toronto Real Estate Board’s attempt to appease the country’s Competition Bureau has fallen flat, with the Bureau filing updated charges that lambaste the board’s plan that would allow agents to set up private websites for their clients.
The board’s proposed policy falls short in two key areas, the Competition Bureau said, and does nothing to address its anti-competitive concerns. Real estate agents would not be able to post historical sales data on the sites, or information about commission fees offered by selling agents to agents representing buyers.
Historical sales data is a key way for buyers to gauge a home’s value, because they can see how often the property has changed hands and for how much. If consumers get all of the data on a password protected website, they could expect to pay less in commission fees.
“If the proposed rules are enacted, they will continue to prevent member brokers from operating a [website],” the revised statement of claim states. “TREB will continue to thwart the development of new, innovative, and efficient models of providing real estate brokerage services using the Internet. The proposed rules will discriminate against brokers seeking to innovate, and will constitute a further anti-competitive act by TREB.”
The Toronto board already allows real estate agents to provide a great deal of information to buyers – such as the number of days a house has been on the market and previous selling prices – in person, by telephone or e-mail, but they are not allowed to create websites where customers can look up the information on their own.
The board was quick to react after the Competition Bureau filed charges, passing a policy that would allow agents to set up the sites as long as certain guidelines were followed – the sites must be password protected, available only to clients, TREB would be able to monitor activity, sellers could opt out of having their home appear on the site and the seller's name and contact information couldn’t appear in the listings.
But without sales data or commission information, the Competition Bureau said the board hasn’t gone far enough. That’s because the Bureau wants brokers to be able to use all of the sales data generated by the board to create products that ultimately lower fees for consumers.
Any restriction on the flow of information is unacceptable, Competition Commissioner Melanie Aitken said. Real estate fees are artificially high in Toronto, she said, because brokers aren’t allowing their clients to do some of the legwork themselves.
Some brokerages in the United States offer their clients as much as 50 per cent off their commission fees if they use a website to do their own research, she said.
The real estate board’s executives have been working on a policy for its 30,000 members since last August, and met with the Bureau several times prior to the charges. Former president Bill Johnston has spoken out strongly against Ms. Aitken’s office, accusing her of using her pulpit to advance her career at the expense of the country’s real estate industry.
Friday, the board said it stood by its new policy. If the two sides can’t find a way to break the impasse, the case will go to the Competition Tribunal, which is allowed to issue fines and could issue binding resolutions to force the board to make changes if it felt the charges were warranted.
TREB president Richard Silver said the board’s main concern is that the Bureau wants it also to publish sale prices for homes that have been technically sold, but haven’t officially closed yet. That could compromise the seller’s ability to get the same price if the deal falls through, he said.
“The Commissioner is pressuring TREB to make changes to its own property listing system that TREB believes would violate consumer privacy laws, reduce the quality of the system, and diminish protection for consumers who list their homes in the Greater Toronto real estate market,” he said.
“TREB appreciates that the Commissioner has a job to do, but TREB is the wrong target. The Commissioner obviously has recognized that her initial application back in May was faulty. Instead of working with TREB to find a practical solution for consumers, the Commissioner has today decided to pursue an additional legal process that will further delay improvements and further disadvantage consumers.
Source: Steve Ladurantaye, Globe and Mail
The board’s proposed policy falls short in two key areas, the Competition Bureau said, and does nothing to address its anti-competitive concerns. Real estate agents would not be able to post historical sales data on the sites, or information about commission fees offered by selling agents to agents representing buyers.
Historical sales data is a key way for buyers to gauge a home’s value, because they can see how often the property has changed hands and for how much. If consumers get all of the data on a password protected website, they could expect to pay less in commission fees.
“If the proposed rules are enacted, they will continue to prevent member brokers from operating a [website],” the revised statement of claim states. “TREB will continue to thwart the development of new, innovative, and efficient models of providing real estate brokerage services using the Internet. The proposed rules will discriminate against brokers seeking to innovate, and will constitute a further anti-competitive act by TREB.”
The Toronto board already allows real estate agents to provide a great deal of information to buyers – such as the number of days a house has been on the market and previous selling prices – in person, by telephone or e-mail, but they are not allowed to create websites where customers can look up the information on their own.
The board was quick to react after the Competition Bureau filed charges, passing a policy that would allow agents to set up the sites as long as certain guidelines were followed – the sites must be password protected, available only to clients, TREB would be able to monitor activity, sellers could opt out of having their home appear on the site and the seller's name and contact information couldn’t appear in the listings.
But without sales data or commission information, the Competition Bureau said the board hasn’t gone far enough. That’s because the Bureau wants brokers to be able to use all of the sales data generated by the board to create products that ultimately lower fees for consumers.
Any restriction on the flow of information is unacceptable, Competition Commissioner Melanie Aitken said. Real estate fees are artificially high in Toronto, she said, because brokers aren’t allowing their clients to do some of the legwork themselves.
Some brokerages in the United States offer their clients as much as 50 per cent off their commission fees if they use a website to do their own research, she said.
The real estate board’s executives have been working on a policy for its 30,000 members since last August, and met with the Bureau several times prior to the charges. Former president Bill Johnston has spoken out strongly against Ms. Aitken’s office, accusing her of using her pulpit to advance her career at the expense of the country’s real estate industry.
Friday, the board said it stood by its new policy. If the two sides can’t find a way to break the impasse, the case will go to the Competition Tribunal, which is allowed to issue fines and could issue binding resolutions to force the board to make changes if it felt the charges were warranted.
TREB president Richard Silver said the board’s main concern is that the Bureau wants it also to publish sale prices for homes that have been technically sold, but haven’t officially closed yet. That could compromise the seller’s ability to get the same price if the deal falls through, he said.
“The Commissioner is pressuring TREB to make changes to its own property listing system that TREB believes would violate consumer privacy laws, reduce the quality of the system, and diminish protection for consumers who list their homes in the Greater Toronto real estate market,” he said.
“TREB appreciates that the Commissioner has a job to do, but TREB is the wrong target. The Commissioner obviously has recognized that her initial application back in May was faulty. Instead of working with TREB to find a practical solution for consumers, the Commissioner has today decided to pursue an additional legal process that will further delay improvements and further disadvantage consumers.
Source: Steve Ladurantaye, Globe and Mail
Friday, June 24, 2011
Toronto Real Estate Board policy takes aim at competition concerns
The Toronto Real Estate Board has developed a new website policy for agents in a bid to satisfy Canada's Competition Commissioner, giving agents the power to create personalized listings sites so clients can browse for houses from their living rooms.
While some of Canada’s 101 real estate boards already allow agents to set up password-protected sites for their clients, the largest board in the country does not. Agents can't rush to open sites today, though - there is a 60-day consultation period planned.
What happens next could set a national precedent for the way in which home buyers research the biggest purchase of their lives, because other boards are expected to adopt the same policy once it’s instituted.
Competition Commissioner Melanie Aitken launched a lawsuit against TREB in May, saying it prevents brokers from sharing information online with their customers . It’s the latest move in the protracted fight between the bureau and real estate agents, who have come under increasing scrutiny as commission-based payments have grown along with the price of Canadian homes.
While the Toronto board allows real estate agents to provide information – such as the number of days a house has been on the market and previous selling prices – by hand, telephone or e-mail, they are not allowed to create websites where customers can look up the information on their own.
The new policy would allow the sites to exist as long as they meet certain requirements - the site's must be password protected, only clients can use them, TREB can monitor activity, sellers can opt out of having their home appear on the sites, and the name and contact information for the sellers must never appear on the listings.
The policy is based on one adopted by the National Association of Realtors in the United States to satisfy the Department of Justice several years ago.
TREB said it has been working on the policy since last August, however, the Competition Bureau has maintained the real estate association hasn't been willing to go far enough to satisfy its concerns. Both sides met several times prior to the charges being filed.
“Consistent with the bureau's practice, we shared our concerns with TREB as well as what would be necessary to address them,” a spokesperson said. “Ultimately, it was necessary for us to seek a legally binding order from the Tribunal to ensure greater competition and increased innovation.”
Incoming TREB president Richard Silver said the policy “confirms TREB's strong belief in open competition and in its members competitive spirit, quite independent of the Competition Commissioner's claims and approach.”
The Bureau said it would rather settle the complaint prior to an appearance at the Competition Tribunal, which can issue fines and binding rulings.
Source: Globe and Mail by STEVE LADURANTAYE
While some of Canada’s 101 real estate boards already allow agents to set up password-protected sites for their clients, the largest board in the country does not. Agents can't rush to open sites today, though - there is a 60-day consultation period planned.
What happens next could set a national precedent for the way in which home buyers research the biggest purchase of their lives, because other boards are expected to adopt the same policy once it’s instituted.
Competition Commissioner Melanie Aitken launched a lawsuit against TREB in May, saying it prevents brokers from sharing information online with their customers . It’s the latest move in the protracted fight between the bureau and real estate agents, who have come under increasing scrutiny as commission-based payments have grown along with the price of Canadian homes.
While the Toronto board allows real estate agents to provide information – such as the number of days a house has been on the market and previous selling prices – by hand, telephone or e-mail, they are not allowed to create websites where customers can look up the information on their own.
The new policy would allow the sites to exist as long as they meet certain requirements - the site's must be password protected, only clients can use them, TREB can monitor activity, sellers can opt out of having their home appear on the sites, and the name and contact information for the sellers must never appear on the listings.
The policy is based on one adopted by the National Association of Realtors in the United States to satisfy the Department of Justice several years ago.
TREB said it has been working on the policy since last August, however, the Competition Bureau has maintained the real estate association hasn't been willing to go far enough to satisfy its concerns. Both sides met several times prior to the charges being filed.
“Consistent with the bureau's practice, we shared our concerns with TREB as well as what would be necessary to address them,” a spokesperson said. “Ultimately, it was necessary for us to seek a legally binding order from the Tribunal to ensure greater competition and increased innovation.”
Incoming TREB president Richard Silver said the policy “confirms TREB's strong belief in open competition and in its members competitive spirit, quite independent of the Competition Commissioner's claims and approach.”
The Bureau said it would rather settle the complaint prior to an appearance at the Competition Tribunal, which can issue fines and binding rulings.
Source: Globe and Mail by STEVE LADURANTAYE
Friday, June 17, 2011
May home prices rise 8.6%
A hot real estate market in Vancouver helped drive home sales in Canada higher in May and push the average price was up 8.6 per cent, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.
The average price in Vancouver, far and away Canada's most expensive market, was up 25.7 per cent to $831,555, while the number of home sales in that area was up 7.2 per cent from a year ago.
BMO deputy chief economist Doug Porter noted the Canadian housing market appears to have enjoyed a healthy spring selling season, while Vancouver marched to its own drummer.
"Quite simply, no other city in the country is seeing anything remotely close to what's unfolding in Vancouver," Porter wrote.
"In fact, many large cities have posted price declines over the past year, notably Calgary, Edmonton and Halifax."
Porter said Vancouver's average price was driven by sales of high-end homes but even so, the price of a typical home was up 6.2 per cent from a year ago at $627,000 and still the highest in the country, according to the Vancouver Real Estate Board.
The number of homes sold in Canada last month was up 2.3 per cent from a year ago, when home sales dropped off after months of heated activity. The national average price in May gained 8.6 per cent to $376,817, driven by strong gains in Vancouver and Toronto.
Excluding Vancouver, the average national price was up 5.6 per cent, while excluding Vancouver and Toronto, the national average was up 3.7 per cent.
Sales down over one month
"The Canadian housing market has seen some big ups and downs in recent years, making national sales activity so far this year look like something of a Goldilocks story by comparison — not too hot, not too cold," said Gary Morse, president of the Canadian Real Estate Association.
While sales compared with a year ago were higher, they were down slightly from the previous month. The number of homes sold in May was down 0.6 per cent from April, while the average price was down 0.1 per cent.
Housing prices have been supported by interest rates which have remained near historic lows and expectations that the Bank of Canada would raise to its key rate — which affects variable rate mortgages — later this year.
Canada's big banks have cut their residential mortgage rates in recent weeks as the weak U.S. economic recovery has put downward pressure on general borrowing costs.
The lower mortgage rates reflect the lower cost of borrowing in the bond market, where banks finance their home loan lending.
TD Bank economist Diana Petramala said Canada's home real estate market will likely remain well supported through most of 2011 by low interest rates.
"As interest rates begin to climb through 2012, a further deterioration in housing affordability will weigh on demand, and home prices are expected to fall," she wrote in a note to clients.
"That being said, continued improvements in the Canadian labour market, and only gradual increases in interest rates will help the resale housing market avoid a 'hard landing."'
Source: The Canadian Press, June 15, 2001
The average price in Vancouver, far and away Canada's most expensive market, was up 25.7 per cent to $831,555, while the number of home sales in that area was up 7.2 per cent from a year ago.
BMO deputy chief economist Doug Porter noted the Canadian housing market appears to have enjoyed a healthy spring selling season, while Vancouver marched to its own drummer.
"Quite simply, no other city in the country is seeing anything remotely close to what's unfolding in Vancouver," Porter wrote.
"In fact, many large cities have posted price declines over the past year, notably Calgary, Edmonton and Halifax."
Porter said Vancouver's average price was driven by sales of high-end homes but even so, the price of a typical home was up 6.2 per cent from a year ago at $627,000 and still the highest in the country, according to the Vancouver Real Estate Board.
The number of homes sold in Canada last month was up 2.3 per cent from a year ago, when home sales dropped off after months of heated activity. The national average price in May gained 8.6 per cent to $376,817, driven by strong gains in Vancouver and Toronto.
Excluding Vancouver, the average national price was up 5.6 per cent, while excluding Vancouver and Toronto, the national average was up 3.7 per cent.
Sales down over one month
"The Canadian housing market has seen some big ups and downs in recent years, making national sales activity so far this year look like something of a Goldilocks story by comparison — not too hot, not too cold," said Gary Morse, president of the Canadian Real Estate Association.
While sales compared with a year ago were higher, they were down slightly from the previous month. The number of homes sold in May was down 0.6 per cent from April, while the average price was down 0.1 per cent.
Housing prices have been supported by interest rates which have remained near historic lows and expectations that the Bank of Canada would raise to its key rate — which affects variable rate mortgages — later this year.
Canada's big banks have cut their residential mortgage rates in recent weeks as the weak U.S. economic recovery has put downward pressure on general borrowing costs.
The lower mortgage rates reflect the lower cost of borrowing in the bond market, where banks finance their home loan lending.
TD Bank economist Diana Petramala said Canada's home real estate market will likely remain well supported through most of 2011 by low interest rates.
"As interest rates begin to climb through 2012, a further deterioration in housing affordability will weigh on demand, and home prices are expected to fall," she wrote in a note to clients.
"That being said, continued improvements in the Canadian labour market, and only gradual increases in interest rates will help the resale housing market avoid a 'hard landing."'
Source: The Canadian Press, June 15, 2001
Monday, June 13, 2011
City can’t afford land transfer tax cut, budget chief says
Toronto’s budget chief says the city cannot afford to cut the land transfer tax in the upcoming budget.
Abolishing the despised tax, which tacks on thousands of dollars to the purchase of a home, was a central promise of Rob Ford’s winning mayoral campaign last year. He pledged to wipe it out by 2012 at the latest. But, faced with a $774-million funding gap, budget chief Mike Del Grande said he does not think the administration should scrap this year a tax that brought in $274-million in 2010
“This is not the year to be looking at the land transfer tax,” he told reporters following the monthly meeting of the budget committee. “You really don’t know what the books will look like until you get in. Although a promise may be made in good faith, it’s a challenge to keep it.”
Adrienne Batra, the Mayor’s press secretary, reiterated that Mayor Ford remains committed to eliminating the land transfer tax during his term, but noted that “the fact that there is a $774-million structural deficit obviously raises some significant challenges.”
One councillor claims that the city’s money woes are not as bad as the Ford administration suggests. “I think we’re in a financial position where with a modest tax increase, and a TTC fare increase, we could make it,” said Councillor Gord Perks (Parkdale-High Park), who accused Mayor Ford of “crying wolf” and scaring residents into cutting services they count on. Mr. Del Grande (Scarborough-Agincourt) lamented that some councillors “don’t get it”.
“We are spending more than we are bringing in. That’s why we are looking at everything under the sun, including the ABCs. It’s not business as usual. We are looking at monetizing assets, labour contracts, user fees. I am doing my best to ensure that the pain is spread evenly,” said Mr. Del Grande.
Source: National Post (Natalie Alcoba With files from Peter Kuitenbrouwer)
Abolishing the despised tax, which tacks on thousands of dollars to the purchase of a home, was a central promise of Rob Ford’s winning mayoral campaign last year. He pledged to wipe it out by 2012 at the latest. But, faced with a $774-million funding gap, budget chief Mike Del Grande said he does not think the administration should scrap this year a tax that brought in $274-million in 2010
“This is not the year to be looking at the land transfer tax,” he told reporters following the monthly meeting of the budget committee. “You really don’t know what the books will look like until you get in. Although a promise may be made in good faith, it’s a challenge to keep it.”
Adrienne Batra, the Mayor’s press secretary, reiterated that Mayor Ford remains committed to eliminating the land transfer tax during his term, but noted that “the fact that there is a $774-million structural deficit obviously raises some significant challenges.”
One councillor claims that the city’s money woes are not as bad as the Ford administration suggests. “I think we’re in a financial position where with a modest tax increase, and a TTC fare increase, we could make it,” said Councillor Gord Perks (Parkdale-High Park), who accused Mayor Ford of “crying wolf” and scaring residents into cutting services they count on. Mr. Del Grande (Scarborough-Agincourt) lamented that some councillors “don’t get it”.
“We are spending more than we are bringing in. That’s why we are looking at everything under the sun, including the ABCs. It’s not business as usual. We are looking at monetizing assets, labour contracts, user fees. I am doing my best to ensure that the pain is spread evenly,” said Mr. Del Grande.
Source: National Post (Natalie Alcoba With files from Peter Kuitenbrouwer)
Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Real estate sales dip but prices continue rise
Canadian home prices continued their upward march in April, driven by strong investor demand in Vancouver, while cracks in the Toronto condominium market may be starting to appear.
The Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday the average price of a home sold in April across the country was $372,544, up eight per cent from a year ago. It was the third straight month that the average price rose eight per cent on a year-over-year basis but the Ottawa-based group cautioned that the figure was skewed due to "surging multimillion-dollar property sales in selected areas of Greater Vancouver."
The group also shrugged off slow April sales figures that saw activity dip 4.4 per cent from March on a seasonally adjusted basis and 14.7 per cent on an actual basis from a year earlier.
The slow sales are said to have been driven by new mortgage rules that came into affect April 19 and made it tougher to borrow, leading people to rush into purchases in March.
The same sort of impact was felt in April 2010 as people moved their pur-chases forward to avoid the mortgage rule changes at the time, fear of higher interest rates and the looming implementation of the HST in two provinces.
"This makes it difficult to compare," said Gregory Klump, chief economist of CREA. "Changes to mortgage regulations that took effect in April 2011 likely sidelined a number of firsttime homebuyers. By contrast, higher end homes sales in Vancouver and Toronto had their best April ever."
Greater Victoria sales slid by a seasonally adjusted 6.7 per cent in April from March, beating out the national average of 4.4 per cent. A total of 457 homes changed hands in the capital region last month, down from 490 in March.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Greater Victoria homes sales dropped by 23.7 per cent to 540 last month from 708 in March.
The average seasonally adjusted sale price of a home in the capital region rose 1.2 per cent monthover-month, to $498,536, from $492,807. But if the numbers are not seasonally adjusted, the average price decreased slightly, by two per cent, to $508,005 in April from $518,536 in March.
Worries about the sustainability of the housing market could be stoked by a report from Urbanation Inc., which monitors the Toronto condominium market. The group says more than 50 per cent of condominiums sold in the past year were purchased by buyers who do not intend to occupy their units and plan to rent in many instances.
Condominium rents in Toronto in the first quarter of 2011 were $2.11 per square foot compared to $2.09 a year earlier, a 0.8 per cent increase. Condominiums being registered now and ready to be occupied are priced for sale in the $450-per-square-foot range while newer units are going for $550 per square foot.
"What happens when these newer units hit the market?" said Ben Myers of Urbanation. "At $550 per square foot, a 750-squarefeet [condo] is $413,000. You put 25 per cent down and you have a mortgage of $310,000. Take a five-year variable mortgage at three per cent with 25-year amortization and you get $1,475 a month mortgage. Your condo fee is $345, property tax is $345 and you are up to $2,200 in carrying costs.
That's a huge [operating] loss," given the average rental rate would bring in just under $1,600 a month, he said.
Source: The Victoria Times Colonist
The Canadian Real Estate Association said Tuesday the average price of a home sold in April across the country was $372,544, up eight per cent from a year ago. It was the third straight month that the average price rose eight per cent on a year-over-year basis but the Ottawa-based group cautioned that the figure was skewed due to "surging multimillion-dollar property sales in selected areas of Greater Vancouver."
The group also shrugged off slow April sales figures that saw activity dip 4.4 per cent from March on a seasonally adjusted basis and 14.7 per cent on an actual basis from a year earlier.
The slow sales are said to have been driven by new mortgage rules that came into affect April 19 and made it tougher to borrow, leading people to rush into purchases in March.
The same sort of impact was felt in April 2010 as people moved their pur-chases forward to avoid the mortgage rule changes at the time, fear of higher interest rates and the looming implementation of the HST in two provinces.
"This makes it difficult to compare," said Gregory Klump, chief economist of CREA. "Changes to mortgage regulations that took effect in April 2011 likely sidelined a number of firsttime homebuyers. By contrast, higher end homes sales in Vancouver and Toronto had their best April ever."
Greater Victoria sales slid by a seasonally adjusted 6.7 per cent in April from March, beating out the national average of 4.4 per cent. A total of 457 homes changed hands in the capital region last month, down from 490 in March.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Greater Victoria homes sales dropped by 23.7 per cent to 540 last month from 708 in March.
The average seasonally adjusted sale price of a home in the capital region rose 1.2 per cent monthover-month, to $498,536, from $492,807. But if the numbers are not seasonally adjusted, the average price decreased slightly, by two per cent, to $508,005 in April from $518,536 in March.
Worries about the sustainability of the housing market could be stoked by a report from Urbanation Inc., which monitors the Toronto condominium market. The group says more than 50 per cent of condominiums sold in the past year were purchased by buyers who do not intend to occupy their units and plan to rent in many instances.
Condominium rents in Toronto in the first quarter of 2011 were $2.11 per square foot compared to $2.09 a year earlier, a 0.8 per cent increase. Condominiums being registered now and ready to be occupied are priced for sale in the $450-per-square-foot range while newer units are going for $550 per square foot.
"What happens when these newer units hit the market?" said Ben Myers of Urbanation. "At $550 per square foot, a 750-squarefeet [condo] is $413,000. You put 25 per cent down and you have a mortgage of $310,000. Take a five-year variable mortgage at three per cent with 25-year amortization and you get $1,475 a month mortgage. Your condo fee is $345, property tax is $345 and you are up to $2,200 in carrying costs.
That's a huge [operating] loss," given the average rental rate would bring in just under $1,600 a month, he said.
Source: The Victoria Times Colonist
Sunday, May 15, 2011
New house prices flat in March
The New Housing Price Index was unchanged in March following a 0.4 per cent advance in February.
Statistics Canada reports monthly increases in some cities were offset by decreases in others, resulting in no change to the national index.
Prices rose the most in Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton, N.B. (up 0.4 per cent) between February and March.
They were followed by Toronto and Oshawa, Winnipeg and Regina (all three registering increases of 0.3 per cent).
The most significant monthly price decreases were recorded in Quebec City (down 0.7 per cent), Windsor (down 0.6 per cent) and Edmonton (down 0.2 per cent).
Year over year, the index was up 1.9 per cent in March after a 2.1 per cent increase in February.
Source: OTTAWA— The Canadian Press
Statistics Canada reports monthly increases in some cities were offset by decreases in others, resulting in no change to the national index.
Prices rose the most in Saint John, Fredericton and Moncton, N.B. (up 0.4 per cent) between February and March.
They were followed by Toronto and Oshawa, Winnipeg and Regina (all three registering increases of 0.3 per cent).
The most significant monthly price decreases were recorded in Quebec City (down 0.7 per cent), Windsor (down 0.6 per cent) and Edmonton (down 0.2 per cent).
Year over year, the index was up 1.9 per cent in March after a 2.1 per cent increase in February.
Source: OTTAWA— The Canadian Press
Tuesday, April 12, 2011
Vacancy rate down as office real estate recovers from recession
Toronto’s office space market is brushing off the remaining signs of recession as vacancy rates start to lower in the downtown core, a new report says.
According to Colliers International’s semi-annual report released Tuesday, the GTA’s average vacancy rate inched down over the past six months to 6.4 percent. Meanwhile, the availability rate in the downtown core also decreased from 10.3 percent at its peak in 2009 to a pre-recession level of 9.1 percent.
“These are signs of solid recovery and the resiliency of the Toronto office market,” said John Arnoldi, managing director with Colliers International in Toronto.
He pointed out that three new office buildings – the Telus tower, RBC tower, and the Bay And Adelaide centre – that have cropped up in the city are full.
“The city waited nearly 14 years for a new tower and these came up during the recession and were still occupied,” Mr. Arnoldi said. “Toronto’s skyline has been changing dramatically and there are definitely more on the horizon.”
The downtown and mid-town areas are recording lower vacancy rates at 5.7 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively.
“There was a concern that with the global meltdown, many downtown financial services would move back their offices into the suburbs,” Mr. Arnoldi said. “But if anything, we’re seeing them re-entrenching in the downtown core.”
The trend of recovery can also been seen in Montreal, according to Colliers International.
“Market fundamentals and industry players all indicate that the Greater Montreal Area office market is on a path to recovery,” said Andrew Maravita, managing director with Colliers International in Montreal notes. “If the macro-economic conditions continue to improve, after a few years of drought in terms of new inventory, the vision of cranes in Montreal’s skyline is a realistic expectation.”
It’s not just a Toronto and Montreal success story, said Cushman & Wakefield, another real estate broker consultancy group.
“What’s really neat is this is Canada-wide story,” said Stuart Barron, national director of research at Cushman & Wakefield. “There are rumours on the streets of the new developments in at least four major cities – and in Toronto, you could expect to hear announcements of at least three more developments.”
Colliers also reported the GTA industrial real estate market also experienced a rebound, with more than 16 million square feet of industrial space sold over the past six months and nearly matching the total transaction volume of 2009.
However, while Mr. Barron agreed that downtown Toronto is showing a strong recovery, it’s not a trend that is necessarily reflecting in the GTA suburbs.
“The GTA is really a tale of two cities,” he said. “Suburban markets continue to feel the brunt of the recession. Downtown, on the other hand, has seen unprecedented demand.”
He attributes the suburban market’s slower recovery to a greater connection to U.S. businesses.
“Suburban markets saw shockingly weak demands over the last two years,” Mr. Barron said. “The GTA west [area] had average demand strength of zero and that in the history of the GTA west, they’ve never seen.”
Source: TAMARA BALUJA Globe and Mail Update
According to Colliers International’s semi-annual report released Tuesday, the GTA’s average vacancy rate inched down over the past six months to 6.4 percent. Meanwhile, the availability rate in the downtown core also decreased from 10.3 percent at its peak in 2009 to a pre-recession level of 9.1 percent.
“These are signs of solid recovery and the resiliency of the Toronto office market,” said John Arnoldi, managing director with Colliers International in Toronto.
He pointed out that three new office buildings – the Telus tower, RBC tower, and the Bay And Adelaide centre – that have cropped up in the city are full.
“The city waited nearly 14 years for a new tower and these came up during the recession and were still occupied,” Mr. Arnoldi said. “Toronto’s skyline has been changing dramatically and there are definitely more on the horizon.”
The downtown and mid-town areas are recording lower vacancy rates at 5.7 per cent and 4.8 per cent respectively.
“There was a concern that with the global meltdown, many downtown financial services would move back their offices into the suburbs,” Mr. Arnoldi said. “But if anything, we’re seeing them re-entrenching in the downtown core.”
The trend of recovery can also been seen in Montreal, according to Colliers International.
“Market fundamentals and industry players all indicate that the Greater Montreal Area office market is on a path to recovery,” said Andrew Maravita, managing director with Colliers International in Montreal notes. “If the macro-economic conditions continue to improve, after a few years of drought in terms of new inventory, the vision of cranes in Montreal’s skyline is a realistic expectation.”
It’s not just a Toronto and Montreal success story, said Cushman & Wakefield, another real estate broker consultancy group.
“What’s really neat is this is Canada-wide story,” said Stuart Barron, national director of research at Cushman & Wakefield. “There are rumours on the streets of the new developments in at least four major cities – and in Toronto, you could expect to hear announcements of at least three more developments.”
Colliers also reported the GTA industrial real estate market also experienced a rebound, with more than 16 million square feet of industrial space sold over the past six months and nearly matching the total transaction volume of 2009.
However, while Mr. Barron agreed that downtown Toronto is showing a strong recovery, it’s not a trend that is necessarily reflecting in the GTA suburbs.
“The GTA is really a tale of two cities,” he said. “Suburban markets continue to feel the brunt of the recession. Downtown, on the other hand, has seen unprecedented demand.”
He attributes the suburban market’s slower recovery to a greater connection to U.S. businesses.
“Suburban markets saw shockingly weak demands over the last two years,” Mr. Barron said. “The GTA west [area] had average demand strength of zero and that in the history of the GTA west, they’ve never seen.”
Source: TAMARA BALUJA Globe and Mail Update
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Hidden fees hike cost of new homes in GTA by as much as 30 per cent
New home buyers in the GTA are being saddled with hidden fees that threaten to price buyers out of the market, with as much as 30 per cent of the purchase price going directly to government coffers.
But the construction industry is pushing back, saying the municipalities’ appetite for development charges could derail the new-housing market by driving the average price beyond the means of most buyers just as interest rates are about to move higher.
The charges have more than doubled in the past five years in many communities around the Greater Toronto Area, according to a pair of reports from the industry that will be released on Thursday.
Development fees are levied to raise the money for the municipality to provide infrastructure – such as roads and sewers – to support the housing. However, the cities have also funneled some of the cash toward projects such as libraries and community centres, which developers say have little to do with the actual construction of a house.
Homebuilders – who have become increasingly vocal in their critique of government policy as the new-housing market shows signs of cooling – said governments have been able to pile costs on consumers over the past several years because interest rates have been low and homes have been relatively affordable.
But with interest rates set to move higher in the next year and more buyers conscious of costs, they said, the full effect of a decade of rising fees could sideline an industry that has been crucial to the region’s economic health.
“Municipalities have increasingly looked to development charges for additional revenue because these costs are indirect and hidden,” states a report by the Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario.
The report estimates that home buyers in Oakville pay an average $50,548 in development charges, with most cities surrounding the City of Toronto charging between $30,000 and $50,000 for each new home built. Toronto’s average take is $12,281 per house, with development charges set to rise this year after a two-year freeze.
“We’re in a different position in the City of Toronto because we aren’t building large subdivisions and most of the infrastructure for new homes is already built,” said special projects director Joe Farag.
In Vancouver, development charges average $23,418. In Calgary, they are $7,475.
These figures don’t include the additional costs added by the federal goods and services tax, or additional charges brought on by the new harmonized sales tax in Ontario and B.C. With those factored in, a report from the Residential Construction Council of Ontario estimates that 30 per cent of a new GTA home’s cost is now determined by government charges. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. estimates the Canadian average is 13.4 per cent.
Oakville Mayor Rob Burton said the city charges developers the maximum amount allowed under provincial legislation because development fees haven’t covered the cost of growth in more than a decade. “Mike Harris gutted them in 1997,” he said.
“So local property taxpayers subsidize billionaire developers whose subdivisions make higher profits by not paying for the hospitals, transit and other infrastructure they require,” he said. “Oakville’s council is proud to have development charges that capture the maximum permissible amount of the costs of growth.”
The builders agree that the shifting of some provincial responsibilities to the municipalities led to rapidly escalating fees in the GTA, but say they should not have to bear the brunt. The president of the Canadian Homebuilders Association said builders can’t simply absorb the costs, because their margins have never been thinner.
“Profit is not a dirty word,” said Vince Laberge. “Politicians need to raise property taxes instead of having a social agenda funded by the new home buyer.”
The reports recommend the province pay a greater share of the cost of municipal infrastructure such as fire stations and libraries, and provide more transit funding, and that municipalities implement user fees in place of development charges wherever possible. If not, they warn, development could be reduced in coming years.
Source: STEVE LADURANTAYE — REAL ESTATE REPORTER
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Mar. 10, 2011
But the construction industry is pushing back, saying the municipalities’ appetite for development charges could derail the new-housing market by driving the average price beyond the means of most buyers just as interest rates are about to move higher.
The charges have more than doubled in the past five years in many communities around the Greater Toronto Area, according to a pair of reports from the industry that will be released on Thursday.
Development fees are levied to raise the money for the municipality to provide infrastructure – such as roads and sewers – to support the housing. However, the cities have also funneled some of the cash toward projects such as libraries and community centres, which developers say have little to do with the actual construction of a house.
Homebuilders – who have become increasingly vocal in their critique of government policy as the new-housing market shows signs of cooling – said governments have been able to pile costs on consumers over the past several years because interest rates have been low and homes have been relatively affordable.
But with interest rates set to move higher in the next year and more buyers conscious of costs, they said, the full effect of a decade of rising fees could sideline an industry that has been crucial to the region’s economic health.
“Municipalities have increasingly looked to development charges for additional revenue because these costs are indirect and hidden,” states a report by the Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario.
The report estimates that home buyers in Oakville pay an average $50,548 in development charges, with most cities surrounding the City of Toronto charging between $30,000 and $50,000 for each new home built. Toronto’s average take is $12,281 per house, with development charges set to rise this year after a two-year freeze.
“We’re in a different position in the City of Toronto because we aren’t building large subdivisions and most of the infrastructure for new homes is already built,” said special projects director Joe Farag.
In Vancouver, development charges average $23,418. In Calgary, they are $7,475.
These figures don’t include the additional costs added by the federal goods and services tax, or additional charges brought on by the new harmonized sales tax in Ontario and B.C. With those factored in, a report from the Residential Construction Council of Ontario estimates that 30 per cent of a new GTA home’s cost is now determined by government charges. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. estimates the Canadian average is 13.4 per cent.
Oakville Mayor Rob Burton said the city charges developers the maximum amount allowed under provincial legislation because development fees haven’t covered the cost of growth in more than a decade. “Mike Harris gutted them in 1997,” he said.
“So local property taxpayers subsidize billionaire developers whose subdivisions make higher profits by not paying for the hospitals, transit and other infrastructure they require,” he said. “Oakville’s council is proud to have development charges that capture the maximum permissible amount of the costs of growth.”
The builders agree that the shifting of some provincial responsibilities to the municipalities led to rapidly escalating fees in the GTA, but say they should not have to bear the brunt. The president of the Canadian Homebuilders Association said builders can’t simply absorb the costs, because their margins have never been thinner.
“Profit is not a dirty word,” said Vince Laberge. “Politicians need to raise property taxes instead of having a social agenda funded by the new home buyer.”
The reports recommend the province pay a greater share of the cost of municipal infrastructure such as fire stations and libraries, and provide more transit funding, and that municipalities implement user fees in place of development charges wherever possible. If not, they warn, development could be reduced in coming years.
Source: STEVE LADURANTAYE — REAL ESTATE REPORTER
From Thursday's Globe and Mail
Published Thursday, Mar. 10, 2011
Thursday, March 03, 2011
Housing sales this year to come in 15 per cent lower than 2007 peak: Scotiabank
Canadian real estate sales this year are expected to come in about 15 per cent below their peak in 2007 but will hover close to the 10-year average, according to a home sales report from Scotiabank.
The bank's Global Real Estate Trend report released Tuesday said the housing market should remain relatively balanced between both buyers and sellers throughout the year.
Momentum will be strongest in the first half of the year as anticipated higher interest rates and tighter mortgage lending rules contribute to softening later in the year, said Scotiabank senior economist Adrienne Warren.
"Market conditions are expected to remain fairly balanced, favouring sellers to some degree in the spring, and buyers by the fall. This, in turn, suggests relatively steady prices, but with more downside risk later in the year," said Warren.
The broad economic factors supporting housing demand — historically low interest rates and steady employment growth —remain in place for further gains. However, sales will edge down this year and into 2012 as demand modifies following the record-breaking housing boom of the past decade.
"Ownership rates are now reaching both a cyclical and structural peak, given inevitably higher borrowing costs, more moderate medium-term growth prospects and more restrictive mortgage product offerings," she said.
One of the major changes beginning this month is a shortening of the maximum amortization period from 35 years to 30 years — adding about $100 per month to the average mortgage payment.
That could have the effect of pricing some first-time buyers out of the market, or at least forcing then to opt for a less expensive home, Warren said.
"Coming on the heels of earlier mortgage-tightening measures implemented in October 2008 and April 2010, this latest round of regulatory changes will have at least some dampening impact on credit demand, home sales and prices," she wrote in the report.
This year's market is expected to follow a similar pattern to the housing activity seen last year.
A powerful driver of economic recovery, the real estate market kicked off last year on a tear as buyers rushed into the market in advance of higher interest rates, new mortgage rules and a new harmonized tax regime in two provinces.
But sales moderated in the second half of the year as a string of modest interest rate hikes, along with the new rules and sales tax took their toll on demand.
The Bank of Canada announced Tuesday it will stick with its ultra-low interest rate policy of one per cent for now, but most economists suggest it will have to raise rates soon in order to ward off inflation.
Any increase would raise variable mortgage rates and any other loans tied to banks' prime rates.
Warren warns that rising mortgage rates, combined with low household incomes and high home prices will strain affordability and further reduce sales.
The report suggests that the number of unsold new homes is higher than average after builders raced to catch up to demand amid the post-recession boom.
"Combined with more muted sales expectations and potentially some slowing in household formation rates, this points to a lower level of sustainable starts over the next few years," it said.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. predicted last month that between 157,000 and 192,000 new housing units will be built this year, with the number remaining virtually the same in 2012.
In its first-quarter housing market outlook, released Thursday, it said economic growth and lower unemployment will prop up the need for new homes.
Housing sale data from February won't be released until mid-March, but the Canadian Real Estate Association projected activity in the resale market likely picked last month in advance of the new mortgage rules coming into effect March 18.
About 42,379 homes were sold on CREA's Multiple Listing Services in January across the country, up 4.5 per cent from the 40,558 sold in December.
Source: By Sunny Freeman, The Canadian Press
The bank's Global Real Estate Trend report released Tuesday said the housing market should remain relatively balanced between both buyers and sellers throughout the year.
Momentum will be strongest in the first half of the year as anticipated higher interest rates and tighter mortgage lending rules contribute to softening later in the year, said Scotiabank senior economist Adrienne Warren.
"Market conditions are expected to remain fairly balanced, favouring sellers to some degree in the spring, and buyers by the fall. This, in turn, suggests relatively steady prices, but with more downside risk later in the year," said Warren.
The broad economic factors supporting housing demand — historically low interest rates and steady employment growth —remain in place for further gains. However, sales will edge down this year and into 2012 as demand modifies following the record-breaking housing boom of the past decade.
"Ownership rates are now reaching both a cyclical and structural peak, given inevitably higher borrowing costs, more moderate medium-term growth prospects and more restrictive mortgage product offerings," she said.
One of the major changes beginning this month is a shortening of the maximum amortization period from 35 years to 30 years — adding about $100 per month to the average mortgage payment.
That could have the effect of pricing some first-time buyers out of the market, or at least forcing then to opt for a less expensive home, Warren said.
"Coming on the heels of earlier mortgage-tightening measures implemented in October 2008 and April 2010, this latest round of regulatory changes will have at least some dampening impact on credit demand, home sales and prices," she wrote in the report.
This year's market is expected to follow a similar pattern to the housing activity seen last year.
A powerful driver of economic recovery, the real estate market kicked off last year on a tear as buyers rushed into the market in advance of higher interest rates, new mortgage rules and a new harmonized tax regime in two provinces.
But sales moderated in the second half of the year as a string of modest interest rate hikes, along with the new rules and sales tax took their toll on demand.
The Bank of Canada announced Tuesday it will stick with its ultra-low interest rate policy of one per cent for now, but most economists suggest it will have to raise rates soon in order to ward off inflation.
Any increase would raise variable mortgage rates and any other loans tied to banks' prime rates.
Warren warns that rising mortgage rates, combined with low household incomes and high home prices will strain affordability and further reduce sales.
The report suggests that the number of unsold new homes is higher than average after builders raced to catch up to demand amid the post-recession boom.
"Combined with more muted sales expectations and potentially some slowing in household formation rates, this points to a lower level of sustainable starts over the next few years," it said.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. predicted last month that between 157,000 and 192,000 new housing units will be built this year, with the number remaining virtually the same in 2012.
In its first-quarter housing market outlook, released Thursday, it said economic growth and lower unemployment will prop up the need for new homes.
Housing sale data from February won't be released until mid-March, but the Canadian Real Estate Association projected activity in the resale market likely picked last month in advance of the new mortgage rules coming into effect March 18.
About 42,379 homes were sold on CREA's Multiple Listing Services in January across the country, up 4.5 per cent from the 40,558 sold in December.
Source: By Sunny Freeman, The Canadian Press
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Commercial real estate deals up 48%
Toronto led other Canadian cities in the value of commercial real estate deals last year, growing by 93 per cent to $7.4 billion. (CBC)
The value of commercial property transactions across Canada soared by 48 per cent last year to $18.9 billion, real estate firm CB Richard Ellis said Monday.
CBRE said the hike was driven by a strengthening economy and surging investor confidence.
CBRE's 2010 National Investment Report found that the volume of commercial deals grew in every market expect for London, Ont.
Transactions in Toronto shot up the most, growing by 93 per cent, with $7.4 billion in trades, up from $3.8 billion in 2009.
Last year's total soared past the $12.7 billion seen in 2009 and approached pre-recession, 2005 levels when $19.8 billion of commercial property changed hands.
By year-end, the number of commercial transactions reached 4,589, up by more than 18 per cent from the 3,872 transactions in 2009.
The report predicts that this year transaction volumes will be strong, but the values of individual deals will likely be smaller.
Source: CBC.ca with files from Canadian Press
The value of commercial property transactions across Canada soared by 48 per cent last year to $18.9 billion, real estate firm CB Richard Ellis said Monday.
CBRE said the hike was driven by a strengthening economy and surging investor confidence.
CBRE's 2010 National Investment Report found that the volume of commercial deals grew in every market expect for London, Ont.
Transactions in Toronto shot up the most, growing by 93 per cent, with $7.4 billion in trades, up from $3.8 billion in 2009.
Last year's total soared past the $12.7 billion seen in 2009 and approached pre-recession, 2005 levels when $19.8 billion of commercial property changed hands.
By year-end, the number of commercial transactions reached 4,589, up by more than 18 per cent from the 3,872 transactions in 2009.
The report predicts that this year transaction volumes will be strong, but the values of individual deals will likely be smaller.
Source: CBC.ca with files from Canadian Press
Monday, January 10, 2011
Canadian real estate market to resemble 2010: report
TORONTO — The Canadian real estate market will follow a similar pattern this year as that seen in 2010 as buyers pull sales forward into the early months in anticipation of higher interest rates, according to a report from one of Canada's largest real estate firms.
The aftershocks of the recession, including a lingering low interest rate environment, will continue to influence the Canadian real estate market in 2011 -- a year that will be stronger than expected, said the report released Thursday by Royal LePage.
Royal LePage predicts that average home prices will rise three per cent to $348,600 in 2011, driven largely by a rush to buy in the first half of the year in advance of anticipated interest and mortgage rate hikes in the second half.
"Canadians realize that interest rates are unsustainably low and that homes will become effectively more expensive when mortgage rates return to normal levels," said Phil Soper, president of Royal LePage.
"2011 is expected to unfold much like 2010, when close to 60 per cent of sales volume occurred in the first half of the year in anticipation of interest rate increases that never materialized."
However, the number of transactions will be slightly lower than last year and activity will be modestly closer to the norm because the pull forward phenomenon last year was exacerbated by a tightening of mortgage qualification rules and the introduction of the HST in Ontario and British Columbia in the middle of the year.
Soper said the extension of low mortgage rates will be an unexpected boon to the market this year.
"Like many Canadians, we anticipated an end to the ultra-low interest rate era before year-end 2010," he said.
"Paradoxically, global economic weakness, particularly in the United States, allowed policy-makers and financial institutions to keep borrowing costs low, resulting in a stronger Canadian housing market and a better than forecast fourth quarter."
Average house prices rose between 3.9 per cent and 4.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2010, while price appreciation is expected to continue a moderate and steady climb throughout the current year.
The report contrasts with some recent predictions by economists that prices should remain flat or decline over the next year.
The Canadian Real Estate Association has predicted prices will fall by 1.3 per cent to a national average of $326,000, this year, tied to weakness in British Columbia and Ontario -- the hottest real estate markets of 2010. It has also forecasted a nine per cent decline in sales.
CREA has yet to release year-end data for 2010, but preliminary reports from two of the biggest markets, Toronto and Vancouver, released this week indicate 2010 declined as expected.
Sales were down by one per cent compared with 2009 in Toronto, while the average home selling price was $431,463, up nine per cent from 2009.
In Vancouver, sales declined 14.2 per cent from 2009, and were 10.3 per cent below the 10-year average for sales in the region. The average selling price in B.C.'s largest city was up 2.7 per cent at $577,808.
Canada's real estate market has been on a rebound over much of the past year after sales dried up in late 2008 and hit a multi-year low in January 2009.
The housing market's sudden plunge was sparked by a credit crunch that developed in the U.S. housing and lending industries, and gradually spread across the globe, causing a worldwide recession in the late summer and early fall of 2009.
The commercial real estate market experienced a similar plunge as investors lost confidence in the sector.
However, the commercial market, which includes office and retail spaces, had a stronger than expected year in 2010 and that momentum is projected to strengthen throughout 2011, according to a report released Thursday by CB Richard Ellis Ltd.
Some market observers had predicted a glut of vacancies in Canada's major business centres, but that didn't happen, said John O`Bryan, vice-chairman of CB Richard Ellis Canada.
We`ve had good news over the past twelve months with respect to interest rates, housing trends and employment gains, with many companies announcing plans for expansion, he wrote in the report.
"2011 may well be another good, stable year but should be viewed with cautious optimism in light of the concentration in employment growth on part-time jobs rather than the full-time positions that indicate confidence in long-term, sustainable growth."
Source: The Canadian Press (Jan 06, 2011)
The aftershocks of the recession, including a lingering low interest rate environment, will continue to influence the Canadian real estate market in 2011 -- a year that will be stronger than expected, said the report released Thursday by Royal LePage.
Royal LePage predicts that average home prices will rise three per cent to $348,600 in 2011, driven largely by a rush to buy in the first half of the year in advance of anticipated interest and mortgage rate hikes in the second half.
"Canadians realize that interest rates are unsustainably low and that homes will become effectively more expensive when mortgage rates return to normal levels," said Phil Soper, president of Royal LePage.
"2011 is expected to unfold much like 2010, when close to 60 per cent of sales volume occurred in the first half of the year in anticipation of interest rate increases that never materialized."
However, the number of transactions will be slightly lower than last year and activity will be modestly closer to the norm because the pull forward phenomenon last year was exacerbated by a tightening of mortgage qualification rules and the introduction of the HST in Ontario and British Columbia in the middle of the year.
Soper said the extension of low mortgage rates will be an unexpected boon to the market this year.
"Like many Canadians, we anticipated an end to the ultra-low interest rate era before year-end 2010," he said.
"Paradoxically, global economic weakness, particularly in the United States, allowed policy-makers and financial institutions to keep borrowing costs low, resulting in a stronger Canadian housing market and a better than forecast fourth quarter."
Average house prices rose between 3.9 per cent and 4.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2010, while price appreciation is expected to continue a moderate and steady climb throughout the current year.
The report contrasts with some recent predictions by economists that prices should remain flat or decline over the next year.
The Canadian Real Estate Association has predicted prices will fall by 1.3 per cent to a national average of $326,000, this year, tied to weakness in British Columbia and Ontario -- the hottest real estate markets of 2010. It has also forecasted a nine per cent decline in sales.
CREA has yet to release year-end data for 2010, but preliminary reports from two of the biggest markets, Toronto and Vancouver, released this week indicate 2010 declined as expected.
Sales were down by one per cent compared with 2009 in Toronto, while the average home selling price was $431,463, up nine per cent from 2009.
In Vancouver, sales declined 14.2 per cent from 2009, and were 10.3 per cent below the 10-year average for sales in the region. The average selling price in B.C.'s largest city was up 2.7 per cent at $577,808.
Canada's real estate market has been on a rebound over much of the past year after sales dried up in late 2008 and hit a multi-year low in January 2009.
The housing market's sudden plunge was sparked by a credit crunch that developed in the U.S. housing and lending industries, and gradually spread across the globe, causing a worldwide recession in the late summer and early fall of 2009.
The commercial real estate market experienced a similar plunge as investors lost confidence in the sector.
However, the commercial market, which includes office and retail spaces, had a stronger than expected year in 2010 and that momentum is projected to strengthen throughout 2011, according to a report released Thursday by CB Richard Ellis Ltd.
Some market observers had predicted a glut of vacancies in Canada's major business centres, but that didn't happen, said John O`Bryan, vice-chairman of CB Richard Ellis Canada.
We`ve had good news over the past twelve months with respect to interest rates, housing trends and employment gains, with many companies announcing plans for expansion, he wrote in the report.
"2011 may well be another good, stable year but should be viewed with cautious optimism in light of the concentration in employment growth on part-time jobs rather than the full-time positions that indicate confidence in long-term, sustainable growth."
Source: The Canadian Press (Jan 06, 2011)
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